The number of shops in the UK will fall by 22% over the next five years, while online retail sales will almost double over the same period.
The predictions come from The Centre for Retail Research's new report, Retail Futures 2018, published today, which believes total store numbers will fall from 281,930 today to 220,000 in 2018. At the same time, the share of internet retail sales will rise from 12.7% in 2012 to 21.5%.
The report also says that a further 164 major or medium-sized companies will go into administration, involving the loss of 22,600 stores and 140,000 employees.
It has sombre news for high streets too, saying that they will continue to suffer. High streets' share of consumer spending has declined from 50% in 2000 to a predicted 40.2% next year. And with such a high number of transactions carried out online, retailers with a strong web offering now need just 70 high street stores to create a national presence compared to 250 in the mid 2000s.
The CRR says the UK is facing a crisis. Retailing and retailers will either make clear strategic decisions that permit online retail to coexist with other retail channels in a multi-channel world allowing bricks and mortar retailers to transform themselves, or, by avoiding making these decisions, multiple retailers will disappear or be so mortally wounded that a large minority of business categories become dominated by purely online retailers.
Radical changes need to be made by retailers, town centres and the government to preserve what is best in retailing, it concludes.