ICAEW's Business Confidence monitor reveals record rise in confidence and predicts that GDP will rise 0.5% this quarter, signalling the end of the recession.
The Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW) has reported that confidence among business professionals has moved into positive territory for the first time in two years.

Its latest Business Confidence Monitor (BCM) revealed a record rise in confidence from -28.2% to 4.8% - the highest since Q3, 2007.

Based on this information, the ICAEW has predicted that GDP will experience a .05% increase this quarter.

The cautious optimism the institute says it is displaying is underpinned by further expected rises in 13 out of the 14 financial performance indicators detailed in the BCM over the next 12 months.

ICAEW chief executive Michael Izza said: "This quarter's BCM suggests that the UK recession is at an end. While there is no doubt that the UK economy is on its way to recovery, we shouldn't underestimate the challenges ahead for businesses. Businesses have taken the right actions to mitigate the impact of the downturn and are playing their part in an improving economy. Policies such as quantitative easing, the fall in interest rates and the VAT reduction have all helped improve business confidence. However, the recovery is very fragile and I would urge policy makers not to take any actions that could derail it."

41% of senior business professionals were more confident about the economic prospects facing their business in the coming year. However, only 6% stated that they were 'much more confident', indicating that caution still remains about the strength and timing of the recovery.

Wales is the most confident region with an index of 16.9%, followed by Scotland at 15.9%. London and the South East are the most cautious at -1,1% and 0.6% respectively.