Research firm predicts retail sales will grow by between 4% and 5% in December if the UK doesn't suffer another harsh winter.
According to Mintel, consumers are set to increase their spending over the next three months in the lead up to Christmas, following very weak demand in the last three months. Mintel also stated that as much as 1% of its predicted sales growth could be an increase in real volume terms.

The research also revealed that 16% of consumers are planning to buy electrical equipment, up from 12% in August.

Although the research revealed a slight increase in the number of consumers planning to save this Christmas, Mintel director of retail Richard Perks is not convinced by the impact of this figure, adding that shoppers "always like to claim they are about to be more virtuous".

A number of retailers will have gone into 2011 with a very cautious outlook and are therefore likely to be understocked if demand increase, said Mr Perks. However, while this is not ideal, he explained that these retailers should at least achieve a relatively high rate of full price sales, adding that, "only the major underperformers are likely to be 'on sale' before Christmas'.

While the figures are encouraging, Mintel stressed that its forecast is based on the assumption that the UK doesn't have another harsh December like last year, where retail sales growth was limited to just 2% and sales volumes fell by 0.4%. Mr Perks said: "The bad weather cost at least 1% point of growth and possibly 1.5%."